METHODOLOGY

No black box. Every verdict traces to the evidence.

A verdict you can't inspect is just an opinion with better production values. Here is exactly how Valtr moves from your question to a call you can defend. And where every number came from.

How the read is computed

Four stages, from your idea to the verdict.

1

Your inputs

The idea, the wedge, the market, and your real constraints. Capital, time, location, and skill. Stated plainly, in about twenty minutes.

2

Grounded research

Valtr pulls the reference set: comparable ventures with outcomes attached, competitors, buyer profiles, and market sizing. Sourced and tiered, never assumed.

3

The model

Evidence is weighed into the three legs. Demand, supply you can beat, and a reason you win. And the moat pillars. Constraints are matched to what the winners needed.

4

The verdict

A verdict word plus a conviction level, in plain language framed for who you are. And rerunnable as new evidence lands.

What every read stands on

Three legs. Two usually stand; one is yours to prove.

Every call rests on demand for the job, supply you can beat, and a reason you specifically win. Valtr shows the state of each. And names the one your first test exists to resolve.

Demand

Is the job real and budgeted?

Named pain, felt regularly, with money already moving against it. The difference between a problem people admit and one they pay to fix.

Supply

Can you beat what's there?

Who serves the job today and how well. An opening is only real if incumbents can't close it with a roadmap slide.

Winnability

Why do you win, and hold?

The edge that compounds with use rather than eroding. Usually the load bearing assumption, and the thing a cheap test can settle.

Where the evidence comes from

Every claim cites its source and its tier.

Valtr never flattens a Reddit thread into an IRS figure. Every number shows where it came from and how much to lean on it.

Tier 1 · Measured

Direct customer outcome data we measure with explicit opt in, lagged 90 days. The strongest evidence Valtr has.

Tier 2 · Verified

Public outcome data with verified provenance. Named, traceable, and checkable by you.

Tier 3 · Proxy

Aggregated proxy data from named sources, used when direct data is thin. Always labelled as such.

The verdict language

A word, not a grade. Framed for who you are.

For a side hustler
Pays offThe math clears the worth it bar
Pays, ifClears it only when you change one lever
Doesn't payThe numbers do not clear the bar
Needs a testToo thin to call. Run a micro test first
For a builder or founder
BuildReal demand in a field you can win
OpportunityAn open or unproven frontier worth a test
ReshapeReal, but not this shape. Pivot the wedge
BailNo demand, or a reason to avoid it outright
For an existing business
GoThe move pays back inside your horizon
OpportunityA new trend or opening worth leaning into
Test firstReal upside, but pilot it on a corner first
HoldThe numbers do not support the move yet
Inside the report

Nine sections, plain English, no filler.

Every number traces to a source; every claim has a drill target. Here's what a full read contains.

01

The verdict

The call and the conviction behind it. The one line read and the move that follows.

02

Executive summary

Why it's this verdict, and what it takes to keep it one.

03

Market opportunity

The opening, sized from the whole category down to the slice you can win first.

04

The field

Who you're up against, and where the open corner sits.

05

Your ICP

Who buys first, why they buy, and who signs.

06

Cheapest tests

The fastest experiments that convert the unmeasured leg into evidence.

07

Economics

Your stated inputs, and what the capital buys before it pays its own way.

08

Risk & scenarios

What could break it, how likely, and the spread of where it lands.

09

Provenance

How the read was computed, with every figure tagged researched or reasoned.

Get your first verdict →
Methodology questions

How far can you trust it?

Is this just ChatGPT with a wrapper?

No. The verdict is computed on a reference set of real ventures with outcome data attached, not generated from a model's opinion. You can inspect the cohort it was scored on.

Can I recompute the verdict myself?

Yes. Every figure that drives the call is shown, with its source and tier. The math is yours to check and to rerun as your own evidence lands.

What if my idea is too niche for a cohort?

Then Valtr says so. A thin reference set returns a needs a test verdict rather than a false confident number, and points to the test that would resolve it.

How current is the evidence?

Measured data is lagged 90 days for accuracy; verified and proxy tiers are timestamped. Reads are rerunnable as sources update.

See the method on your idea.

Your first verdict is free. A clear call, the evidence behind it, and a full report in minutes.

Get your verdict →