Why you can trust the number

A number you can actually trust.

Every decision is graded on what actually happened in the real world, not on a model of what you hope will happen. You bring the decision and your real constraints. Valtr brings the Reality Index and one clear Read.

Score your first decision free → Walk the four steps ↓
The four steps

From a decision to a call you can act on.

You do two things. You describe the decision and you set your real constraints. Valtr returns the Reality Index, the Read, and the report, then opens the engine to run the call you commit to.

01 · Describe

Describe the decision

Pick from the menu or describe your own. Be specific about the pursuit.

02 · Constrain

Set your real constraints

Capital, hours, calendar, geography. Honest constraints get honest answers.

03 · Score

Read the Reality Index

A Reality Index, a clear Read, and a full report, in minutes.

04 · Decide

Build, test, or skip

The relevant Domain Engine opens on commit, with the evidence still attached.

Built on real outcomes

What actually happened, not opinions.

Your decision is graded against real outcomes, the wins and the misses both. You see what the market actually did to ventures like yours, the ones that cleared the bar and the ones that stalled.

Outcomes beat opinions because outcomes already happened. A consulting deck tells you what a room of analysts believes. Valtr tells you what the real world already proved.

REFERENCE COHORT · 412 VENTURES
Cleared the bar
62%
Stalled out
26%
Still running
12%
MATCH SCORE 0.78 · LAST 36 MONTHS
REALITY INDEX
64
CONFIDENCE BAND 56 to 72 · HIGH
The Reality Index

One number, honest about itself.

The Reality Index is your odds of clearing the bar under your own constraints. The bar is what a venture has to clear to be worth running. The index is your read on whether you clear it.

And it is honest about how sure it is. When the evidence is strong, the number is firm. When the evidence is thin, it tells you so rather than pretending to a certainty it has not earned. A strong yes reads differently from a maybe, and you always know which one you have.

The Read

The index resolves to one clear call.

No hedging. The Reality Index lands on a single Read, from A down to C, each pointing to a next move.

ABuild it.
A−Build with one watch item.
B+Lean build, test the riskiest assumption.
BTest first.
CSkip.
Your position, the Constraint Map

Graded for you, not for an average operator.

The Constraint Map takes your capital, your time, and your expertise and grades each one against what the win actually takes. Every line comes back as a FIT, a NOTE, or a GAP, so you see where you are covered and where you are exposed before you commit a dollar.

Capital to startFIT

Your budget clears what the winners needed at launch.

Hours per weekNOTE

Workable, but tighter than the median winner ran.

Local saturationGAP

The market is denser than most winners faced. Watch it.

The report

The realistic factors most people overlook, in a nine section report.

The factors that decide most ventures are rarely the ones in the pitch. They are the quiet costs, the channel that saturates, the second skill the win quietly demands. The report names them and traces every number to a source, so anyone you share it with can check the work.

Reality Index

Your odds of clearing the bar under your own constraints, honest about how sure it is.

The Read

A, A minus, B plus, B, or C. One clear call, from build it to skip, with the next move named.

Built on real outcomes

Your decision graded against what actually happened, the wins and the misses both.

Constraint Map

Your capital, time, and expertise against what the win takes, each line a FIT, a NOTE, or a GAP.

Realistic factors most people overlook

The quiet risks the misses ran into and the wins quietly sidestepped.

Sourced throughout

Every number traces to a source and every claim has a place to drill in. No filler, plain English.

See it on your own decision.

Describe the call, set your real constraints, and get the Reality Index, the Read, and the nine section report. Your first decision is free.

Score your first decision →